Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS)
Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections

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PUBLICATIONS

Reference Group reports

 Consultation on Concurrent Sexual Partnerships.  Recommendations from a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Nairobi, Kenya, April 20th and 21st 2009. Uploaded June 2009.

 

 Estimation of the size of high risk groups and HIV prevalence in high risk groups in concentrated epidemics. Recommendations from a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, December 9th and 10th 2009. Uploaded June 2009.

 

Consultative Meeting on Data Collection & Estimation Methods Related to HIV Infection in Infants and Children.  Report of a consultative meeting with UNICEF, WHO and the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in New York, USA, July 8-10th 2008.  Uploaded December 2008.

 

Improving the EPP and Spectrum estimation tools for the 2008-9 round of national estimates with specific attention to prevalence fits and their uncertainty, changes in the urban:rural population ratio, bias in HIV prevalence measured in national surveys, incidence estimates, orphanhood estimates, effects of ART; and a discussion on concurrent partnerships. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in London, UK, February 28th and 29th 2008. Uploaded August 2008.

Methods for estimation of ART’s impact on deaths averted/delayed; and Developments in EPP 2007. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Baltimore, USA, July 13th 2007. Uploaded October 2007.

Estimation of orphanhood due to AIDS and non-AIDS causes and the impact of intervention programmes. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Baltimore, USA, July 12th 2007. Uploaded October 2007.

Improving parameter estimation, projection methods, uncertainty estimation, and epidemic classification. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Prague, Czech Republic, November 29th - December 1st 2006. Uploaded March 2007.

Estimating uncertainty in national HIV burdens using Bayesian Melding. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in London, UK, October 30th 2006. Uploaded March 2007.

Improvements to estimation packages. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Glion, Switzerland, July 19th-20th 2006. Uploaded March 2007.

Improving estimates of national HIV burdens and ART need, and modelling the impact of prevention programmes. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Athens, Greece, December 13-15th 2005. Uploaded May 2006.

Statement on the use of the BED-assay for the estimation of HIV-1 incidence for surveillance or epidemic monitoring. Statement following a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Athens, Greece, December 13th 2005. Uploaded December 2005.

Rates of mother-to-child transmission and the impact of different PMTCT [prevention of mother-to-child transmission] regimens. Report of a consultation organised by the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections, February-March 2005. Uploaded December 2005.

Methods and assumptions for estimates of children in need of treatment for HIV. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections, and WHO HIV Treatment & Prevention Scale-up Team, held in Geneva, Switzerland, March 2nd 2005. Uploaded October 2005.

Demographic issues in modelling HIV/AIDS epidemics. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group held in Tours, France, July 25-26th 2005. Uploaded October 2005.

Evidence and causes of declines in HIV prevalence and incidence in countries with generalised epidemics. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group held in November 2004. Uploaded March 2005.

Development of EPPv2 and Spectrum, and Measuring and tracking concentrated HIV epidemics. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group held in December 2004. Uploaded January 2005.

Technical report and recommendations: Methods and software to produce HIV/AIDS estimates in the era of population-based prevalence surveys. Report from an ad hoc Reference Group meeting held in May 2004. Uploaded June 2004.

Technical report on improving estimates and projections of HIV/AIDS 2003 - report on the progress made since the last major Reference Group meeting and recommendations for current policy and future research. Uploaded March 2004.

Software - implements the UNAIDS methods for estimates and projections of HIV prevalence and AIDS mortality. Uploaded March 2004.

Recommendations of the UNAIDS Epidemiology Reference Group 2002 - report on the progress made since the last major Reference Group meeting and recommendations for current policy and future research. Uploaded March 2003.

Projecting the prevalence of HIV - a description of the epidemiological model being used by UNAIDS for the 2001 global estimates and projections of HIV prevalence and AIDS mortality. Uploaded April 2001.

UNAIDS Epidemiology Reference Group Recommendations regarding HIV surveillance and projection, the impact of AIDS on number of orphans, and HIV prevention - based on the annual meeting of the Reference Group held in October 2000.  

Papers

Members of the Reference Group also collaborate to produce ad hoc papers responding to relevant research issues:

Improved data, methods and tools for the 2007 HIV and AIDS estimates and projections (Sexually Transmitted Infections 2008 Aug;84 (Suppl 1): 1-96). A special supplement of Sexually Transmitted Infections with papers documenting the developments of the methods used by UNAIDS to produce HIV estimates for the Report on the Global AIDS epidemic 2007.

Hallett TB, Zaba B, Todd J, Lopman B, Mwita W, et al. (2008). Estimating Incidence from Prevalence in Generalised HIV Epidemics: Methods and Validation. PLoS Medicine Vol. 5, No. 4, e80

 

Hallett TB, Gregson S, Dube S, Garnett GP. (2008). The Impact of Monitoring HIV Patients Prior to Treatment in Resource-Poor Settings: Insights from Mathematical Modelling. PLoS Medicine Vol. 5, No. 3, e53

 

Hallett TB, White PJ & Garnett GP. The appropriate evaluation of HIV prevention interventions: from experiment to full scale implementation. Sexually Transmitted Infections 2007; 83(Suppl I): i55–i60.

 

Improved methods and tools for HIV/AIDS estimates and projections (Sexually Transmitted Infections 2006 Jun; 82 (Suppl 3) : 1-91). A special supplement of Sexually Transmitted Infections with papers documenting the developments of the methods used by UNAIDS to produce HIV estimates for the Report on the Global AIDS epidemic 2006.

 

White PJ, Ward H & Garnett GP. Is HIV out of control in the UK? An example of analysing patterns of HIV spread using incidence-to-prevalence ratios. AIDS 2006; 20: 1898–1901.

 

Grassly NC, Timæus IM (2005) Methods to Estimate the Number of Orphans as a Result of AIDS and Other Causes in Sub-Saharan Africa. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 39(3): 365-375.

 

Methods and tools for HIV/AIDS estimates and projections. A special supplement of Sexually Transmitted Infections with papers documenting the methods and software used by UNAIDS to produce HIV estimates for the Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic 2004. Published July 2004.

 

Natural history and mortality in HIV positive individuals living in resource-poor settings: a literature review by Martin Schneider, Marcel Zwahlen and Matthias Egger (June 2004)

 

Walker N, Grassly NC, Garnett GP, Stanecki KA, Ghys PD (2004) Estimating the global burden of HIV/AIDS: what do we really know about the HIV pandemic? Lancet 363: 2180-2185.

Grassly NC, Lewis JJC, Mahy M, Walker N, Timæus IM (2004) Comparison of survey estimates with UNAIDS/WHO projections of mortality and orphan numbers in sub-Saharan Africa. Population Studies 58: 207-217.

Methods and procedures for estimating HIV/AIDS and its impact: the UNAIDS/WHO estimates for end of 2001, Walker, N., K. A. Stanecki, T. Brown, J. Stover, S. Lazzari, J-M. Garcia-Calleja and others (2003). AIDS 17: 2215-2225.

Grassly NC & Timæus IM (2003) Orphans and AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. New York, UN Population Division UN/POP/MORT/2003/9, 2003.

Pisani E, Garnett GP, Brown T, Stover J, Grassly NC, Hankins C, Walker N, Ghys PD (2003) Back to basics in HIV prevention: focus on exposure. British Medical Journal 326:1384-7. [Supplementary material available here in pdf format]

 

Improved methods and assumptions for estimation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact: Recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections. (2002) AIDS 16:W1-W14. 

 

Stover J, Walker N, Garnett GP, Salomon JA, Stanecki KA, Ghys P, Grassly NC, Anderson RM and Schwartländer B (2002). Can We Reverse the HIV/AIDS Pandemic with an Expanded Response? Lancet 360:73-77

 

Grassly NC and Timæus IM (2004) Orphan Numbers in Populations with Generalised AIDS Epidemics - to appear soon; the technical basis for current UNAIDS, US Census Bureau, USAID and UNICEF orphan estimates presented in "Children on the Brink 2004".

 

 

 

 Last modified: 02 Jul 2009